Come to the Doctor for Rental Advice… NOT political predictions

I am not going to hold my breath for the press to call next election cycle… and will not be giving up my day job anytime soon…

In the five races I made predictions in on Monday, I went 3 for 5 on calling the winner and only 1 for 5 on the percentages (on percentages, if I was within 2%, that would be close enough to be “right”). As far as voting for the eventual winners in those five races, the general public and I only agreed on 2 of those 5 races.

Let’s quickly re-cap…

For State Assembly I predicted Seidel with 55% of the vote. Although I was right with the winner, and close with the percentage (52%), I was MASSIVELY off with her challengers Eno and Maas. I had thought that a 3rd party choice would be much more popular this election cycle, and I was way off. Incidentally, this was a vote that I was undecided on until I was standing there staring at the ballot. Seidel or Mass…. Everyone I talked to agreed that Seidel was going to pull down over 50% of the vote, therefore I felt it safe to vote for Maas, to “send a message to Madison.” If I knew the race was going to be as close as it was, the vote would have gone Seidel.

For State Senate, I predicted Galloway in a nail-biter with 50.5% of the vote. Again, I got the candidate right but was off in the margin of victory. The Daily Herald is reporting this morning that she got 54% of the vote. Galloway got my vote because of my history of personal interactions with Decker (or more correctly put, lack thereof).

The Governor’s race is the only one where I was spot on. The Daily Herald is reporting that Walker won with 52% of the vote, and that was my prediction. This was another race where I was pretty much undecided as I really didn’t care for either candidate. I ended up voting for Barrett because I had this feeling that the republicans were going to win everything else and I am a big fan of balance of power.

My record of getting at least the winning candidates right ended with those state-wide races. I honestly thought that Feingold would pull out the election with 54% of the vote based on his history of voting against his party more often than most others in the Senate. I underestimated the backlash from a couple of the key votes where he agreed with his party, most notably health care reform, which helped push Johnson to the win with 53% of the vote. My vote went to Feingold because I just didn’t think Johnson had what it took to do the job.

Finally 7th District. I had thought that Duffy would win with 53% of the vote unless he went negative (which he did), in which case it would be Lassa with 51%. My assumption that 4% of the voters would change their vote over a couple of negative ads was wrong. Duffy won with 52%, close to my original prediction. I was pleased to see that the Mielke write-in campaign didn’t play any real role in the election and didn’t come near the 2.5% I thought they would get. Along with Galloway, this was the only winning candidate of these five races that I voted for. Much like my vote for Barrett, my goal for voting here was to have the power split between the parties.

3 for 5 on winners (60%) is a “D” and 1 for 5 on percentages (20%) is clearly an “F”… I guess I will just stick to real estate.

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About drrent

Wausau, Wisconsin Landlord, past president of the Wisconsin Apartment Association, Host of the Dr Rent Radio Show on WNRB-LP, 93.3 FM, Wausau, WI
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2 Responses to Come to the Doctor for Rental Advice… NOT political predictions

  1. liber8r says:

    Interesting.
    So, why would Seidel be reelected if people are unhappy with the deficit spending of the Legislature and don’t trust politicians (according to the polls)?
    Actually, I am not surprised that people voted for Seidel. Therefore, my Send a Message theme.
    Reelection seems to be the pattern around here for entrenched incumbents. A leadership position gave her a big advantage in fundraising from some major corporations, unions, and lobbyists. (Not sure what she did with it. Doubt that she spent much of it.)

    Appears to me that, instead of sending a message about balanced budget and constitutional government, the message sent is that the status quo is not so bad and that anyone not a Republicrat need not run for office around here anytime soon.

  2. Jim… I will be honest.. I don’t get it either.

    I admit that I vote the person more than I vote the party. In a brief 2 minute encounter with Eno, he made it clear he was not the answer. If you are going to represent me, you need to be civil, and be open to discuss issues and positions, and willing to listen.

    I like Donna as a person more than I do as a candidate. I had probems with the health care crap, I had problems with the smoking ban. However, when I had a concern about proposed legislation and I wrote, emailed, or called her, I got a response back. Not from a staffer, but from her. We would talk, she would listen, discussion would ensue.

    I don’t affilate myself with any political party, but what I have seen about the libertarian stands on things, I share much more in common there with D’s or R’s. I honestly thought this was the year for “other” on the ballot.

    I recieved a political cartoon in the mail that I have been sharing…. it is a picture of a car with a large wall in front of it and behind it. The car is smashed both on the front end and the back end, there is no room to turn around, there is only room to go a bit forward and hit the wall in front (labled democrats) or hit the wall behind (labled republicans)… the wife in the car is telling the husband, after hitting the wall in front, to put it in reverse again.

    It is no mystery that I also have my eye on that 85th Assembly District seat. It is also no mystery that my intent has always been to run as an independent for that seat. However, this election cycle is forcing me to re-evaluate that.. not my desire to serve, but my methodology for getting there.

    This is a year when I thought it was clear that both R’s and D’s werent the answer. It was clear to me that R’s drove us off a cliff, and it was clear that D’s don’t own a parachute. It is time to give the wheel to people in the middle.

    Because of the demographic of this district, I didn’t see Donna losing the seat, however because of the fustration with the status quo, I did see you doing a helluva lot better than what you did. I had you doing better than the republican on the ticket.

    However, I fear your are 100% correct that “Republicrats” need not apply. So, if I want to make a legitimate run for assembly, I am going to have to allign myself with one of the bigger parties. I believe that the Dems are more likely to welcome a candidate who believes in less government than the Rep’s are likely to support someone who is 100% against their social agenda.

    But to be honest, unless something changes in the polarization of the parties that we have seen in the age that I like to call “Post-Newt”… the moderate middle are just innocent bystanders.

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