I am not going to hold my breath for the press to call next election cycle… and will not be giving up my day job anytime soon…
In the five races I made predictions in on Monday, I went 3 for 5 on calling the winner and only 1 for 5 on the percentages (on percentages, if I was within 2%, that would be close enough to be “right”). As far as voting for the eventual winners in those five races, the general public and I only agreed on 2 of those 5 races.
Let’s quickly re-cap…
For State Assembly I predicted Seidel with 55% of the vote. Although I was right with the winner, and close with the percentage (52%), I was MASSIVELY off with her challengers Eno and Maas. I had thought that a 3rd party choice would be much more popular this election cycle, and I was way off. Incidentally, this was a vote that I was undecided on until I was standing there staring at the ballot. Seidel or Mass…. Everyone I talked to agreed that Seidel was going to pull down over 50% of the vote, therefore I felt it safe to vote for Maas, to “send a message to Madison.” If I knew the race was going to be as close as it was, the vote would have gone Seidel.
For State Senate, I predicted Galloway in a nail-biter with 50.5% of the vote. Again, I got the candidate right but was off in the margin of victory. The Daily Herald is reporting this morning that she got 54% of the vote. Galloway got my vote because of my history of personal interactions with Decker (or more correctly put, lack thereof).
The Governor’s race is the only one where I was spot on. The Daily Herald is reporting that Walker won with 52% of the vote, and that was my prediction. This was another race where I was pretty much undecided as I really didn’t care for either candidate. I ended up voting for Barrett because I had this feeling that the republicans were going to win everything else and I am a big fan of balance of power.
My record of getting at least the winning candidates right ended with those state-wide races. I honestly thought that Feingold would pull out the election with 54% of the vote based on his history of voting against his party more often than most others in the Senate. I underestimated the backlash from a couple of the key votes where he agreed with his party, most notably health care reform, which helped push Johnson to the win with 53% of the vote. My vote went to Feingold because I just didn’t think Johnson had what it took to do the job.
Finally 7th District. I had thought that Duffy would win with 53% of the vote unless he went negative (which he did), in which case it would be Lassa with 51%. My assumption that 4% of the voters would change their vote over a couple of negative ads was wrong. Duffy won with 52%, close to my original prediction. I was pleased to see that the Mielke write-in campaign didn’t play any real role in the election and didn’t come near the 2.5% I thought they would get. Along with Galloway, this was the only winning candidate of these five races that I voted for. Much like my vote for Barrett, my goal for voting here was to have the power split between the parties.
3 for 5 on winners (60%) is a “D” and 1 for 5 on percentages (20%) is clearly an “F”… I guess I will just stick to real estate.